The Numbers?

 One of the things Amway IBOs are taught is to ignore facts, or to ignore numbers. I believe this is because the numbers are not pretty when you take a business-like approach to the math behind the Amway business, for most IBOs. It is why upline teaching often "evolves" into things such as Amway saves marriages, or Amway makes you a nicer person, or that Amway is not about money, it is about friendships. That is a load of garbage. Business is about making a profit. If you hear some of these lines from your upline, it should be a red flag. Upline may also feed you other deceptive lines such as an IBO being successful because they showed up at a function, or because they just signed up for standing order. These are all just false lines to encourage an IBO who is not making money.

When you take a good look at the Amway presentation, the majority of IBOs are at the 100 PV level. At that level, they are spending about $300 monthly to reach 100 PV and for their efforts, they receive approximately a $10 check from Amway. Most IBOs will be encouraged to participate in some kind of system, often consisting of voicemail, websites, cds, books, seminars and other meetings. MOST IBOs will not recoup enough cash to cover any of these expenses, let alone all of them. At a glance, the system expenses may appear nominal such as $6 for a cd, $6 for an open meeting, $100 to $125 for a major function, $12 for a book. It is how upline gets you involved, and then after a while, an IBO starts to notice the negative cashflow and then a tough decision needs to be made. Either quit and cut the losses, or press on hoping that the system will eventually deliver on its promises.

What most IBOs don't notice, is that less than one half of one percent ever reach platinum. A fraction of one percent! And in many cases, platinums might break even or even suffer losses! So why would IBOs want to work so hard to reach platinum? They have less than a 1% chance of reaching that level. They have a tiny chance of maintaining that level, and they are still unlikely to earn any significant income at that level. A study done by an attorney general in Wisconsin (Bruce Craig) revealed that platinum level IBOs averaged a net loss of about $900 annually. While Amway defenders will decry that the study is a bit dated, I will say this: The basics of the Amway business has not changed since that study was done, AND there are actually more system expenses today than there were back then, thus platinums may actually be losing more money annually than before. While not all platinums will lose money, I believe hard core dedicated platinums would stand to lose money.

As an IBO, I hope you are tracking your expenses versus your income. Most IBOs will see a negative cashflow month after month. Even though the Amway business is often promoted as low or no overhead, the system expenses (overhead) eventually begin to add up. Beware and please follow the numbers.

Negative Cashflow?

 One of the things I am hearing about right now by Amway supporters is the concept that Amway pays you to shop there. The problem with this statement is that many IBOs see this rebate but do not calculate the fact that you can still have a better bottom line simply by purchasing a product elsewhere. For example, if Walmart started some kind of cash rebate program, would you quit Amway and shop at Walmart?

Then One of the things I am hearing about right now by Amway supporters is the concept that Amway pays you to shop there. The problem with this statement is that many IBOs see this rebate but do not calculate the fact that you can still have a better bottom line simply by purchasing a product elsewhere. For example, if Walmart started some kind of cash rebate program, would you quit Amway and shop at Walmart?

Then when an Amway supporter is cornered with this information, they will switch gears and start to defend quality versus price. It's all very predictable.
Honest question for IBOs. Why do you use KATE instead of the Amway voicemail system? Amway pays you to shop there, your upline profits from and does not pay you to use KATE.

One of the biggest problems with especially new IBOs is they ignore negative cashflow. And I cannot really blame them. They are usually sponsored by someone they trust, and they are often taught to ignore facts or taught that they are investing in their business, just like a real business, even though when recruited, they are told little or ZERO risk. Thus an IBO who intends to make a profit will generally get set up with a website and some other materials. While the cost may not be exorbitant, these few materials already exceed a new IBO's income unless they actully go out and sell some goods or are able to sponsor downline who sell and buy products. And the more dedicated an IBO is, the greater the chance is that the IBO's negative cashflow will be larger. When you start to add in standing order and functions, the cashflow gets more and more negative and there are many testimonies of massive debts built up by IBOs in a few years or less.

What's ironic is that many IBOs incur these debts at the advice of their upline, or if you will, "mentors". Many uplines will teach IBOs to "never quit". It is my guess that uplines will make blanket statements like never quit without knowing an IBOs circumstance. Just as a statement like you "need" to attend a certain function, or you need standing order. No assessment of an IBO's business or personal circumstances. It appears that uplines are simply interested in making a sale for their BSM business. You may ask why a diamond should assess a downline's business before issuing these statements. I ask why downline should call them "mentors". In the meantime, these downlines suffer negative cashflow from their Amway business. Ironically, some upline teaches that "insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results". Attending functions and listening to standing orders while losing money each month is that same insanity. When an Amway supporter is cornered with this information, they will switch gears and start to defend quality versus price. It's all very predictable.
Honest question for IBOs. Why do you use KATE instead of the Amway voicemail system? Amway pays you to shop there, your upline profits from and does not pay you to use KATE.

One of the biggest problems with especially new IBOs is they ignore negative cashflow. And I cannot really blame them. They are usually sponsored by someone they trust, and they are often taught to ignore facts or taught that they are investing in their business, just like a real business, even though when recruited, they are told little or ZERO risk. Thus, an IBO who intends to make a profit will generally get set up with a website and some other materials. While the cost may not be exorbitant, these few materials already exceed a new IBO's income unless they actully go out and sell some goods or are able to sponsor downline who sell and buy products. And the more dedicated an IBO is, the greater the chance is that the IBO's negative cashflow will be larger. When you start to add in standing order and functions, the cashflow gets more and more negative and there are many testimonies of massive debts built up by IBOs in a few years or less.

What's ironic is that many IBOs incur these debts at the advice of their upline, or if you will, "mentors". Many uplines will teach IBOs to "never quit". It is my guess that uplines will make blanket statements like never quit without knowing an IBOs circumstance. Just as a statement like you "need" to attend a certain function, or you need standing order. No assessment of an IBO's business or personal circumstances. It appears that uplines are simply interested in making a sale for their BSM business. You may ask why a diamond should assess a downline's business before issuing these statements. I ask why downline should call them "mentors". In the meantime, these downlines suffer negative cashflow from their Amway business. Ironically, some upline teaches that "insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results". Attending functions and listening to standing orders while losing money each month is that same insanity.

The Scam?

 A lot of people come and go in Amway, but many of those who come and go don't even notice the scam. They get sold on what they believe is a business opportunity that they can maksome money at, or at the very least save some money on products that they would normally buy anyway. If they do it right, they can possibly make some "real" money and with some had work, you can build it right and have the option one day of walking away from Amway and living off ongoing residual income from Amway. It sounds reasonable and therein lies the scam.

For years, I have challenged people to name 2-3 people, aside from the Amway owners, who joined, built the business "right" and was able to walk away and retire with ongoing residual income, enough to be financially free forever. Not a single person has been able to name and confirm that even a single person has done this. I believe it's all a lie and part of the scam. Amway's distributor force turns over about 50% each year. How can you build a residual income empire when half of your downline quits each year? I believe Amway diamonds trade their 9-5 jobs for the night shift. They work at night and into the morning hours because they are working to replace people who quit and to support downline platinums who might struggle or fail to re-qualify for that level. If upline says they are working for the love of their downline, I call BS on that. If walking away and enjoying life was an option, why hasn't anyone chosen it?

Now you could argue that a diamond's "work" isn't that bad and they aren't reporting to a boss. And that would be true, but I imagine the pressure of churning peope in and out to keep qualifying can be stressful in itself. If you live on an island like me, you can eventually have trouble finding new people to work with. In 1997 or so, there were a bunch of diamonds in Hawaii and they all moved to the ainland. Now I"m not sure why but my upline diamond was Harimoto, who loved the ocean and the beaches. Yet he moved to Washington state. I believe they needed new grounds to mine, just like gold miners.

The next part of the scam is how IBOs will tell you about Amway's generous money back guarantee. 100% they'll tell you. What they don't tell you is that the guarantee is only on some of the products and the sign up fee. The cds, books, voicemail and functions are not sold or run by Amway. And these expenses can be very significnt over a period of time. IBOs and prospects need to know this. You can lose thousands and get back pennies on the dollar asking for a refund on the sign up fee and perhaps a few products. Another piece of the scam.

Also, IBOs and prospects are often shown only the very best case scenario (such as going diamond) but not told that your chance of being struck by lightning is much higher than your chance of going diamond, even though going diamond is not a random event. A real life and likely scenario is getting in and trying hard for a while, and then quitting with some business losses. At least if you know this and still try anyway, you will have done so with full disclosure.

Lastly, it's insidious in my opinion, for upline to tell you to trust them and to do as they say, and then turn around and tell IBOs that failure is their responsibility. That they didn't work hard enough or do thing just right. That sure isn't what they are preaching when recruiting you into the business. They are saying how sharp you are and how you're likely to tear up the business. But it's just another facet of the scam. I've outlined the parts of the opportunity that I believe are scams, but I'm sure it's not limited to my point of view.

Good luck if you read this and join anyway.

Math And The Systems?

 Many IBOs and Amway supporters adhere to the idea that their system works. As far as I know, there is zero unbiased evidence that the system works. The system generally consists of a website, voicemail, standing orders and seminars or functions, as well as meetings to show the plan, etc. While Amway supporters will claim that nearly everyone who succeeds is on the system, they won't mention how everyone who succeeds also has hundreds if not thousands of downlines who do not succeed, even with earnest effort in building the business using the system.

Edward O. Thorpe was a math professor at M.I.T. who studied and wrote a theory on Blackjack, and found that it was mathematically possible for a blackjack player to have an edge over the house in a game of blackjack. Casinos scoffed at the theory and said it was just that. A theory with no real life application. Well, Mr. Thorpe started playing small and found that his theory was correct. He was counting cards in blackjack and making consistent money. His book eventually became a best seller. The casinos were ticked off and started kicking out people who were obviously winning and counting cards. Counting cards is not illegal but casinos can refuse to allow a player on their premises. But what casinos did not notice right away, was that their profits were skyrocketing because so many people knew the theory but could not or were not capable of executing the card counting system.

But hey, the system works so everyone should count cards for a living right? After all, it is proven by math that the cards will eventually favor a player and in the long run, you can make huge profits from playing blackjack. Of course not, it is ridiculous for people to think that card counting is a good way to make a buck. Not everyone has the bankroll, the skill, and the patience to succeed in card counting. Most people are better off not even trying this.

In my informed opinion, this card counting system is just like WWDB, BWW, LTD, N21 or other Amway systems. For one thing, card counting is a proven system. The Amway systems are not. But it can be viewed as similar in that very few people can use the system and make it work. Even when hundreds of thousands may try it, very few will succeed in both Amway and card counting. In both "systems", those who do not succeed can lose thousands of dollars. In both systems, doing things right can still result in losses.

In both systems, it is "possible" to succeed, but it is highly unlikely. The vast majority of people simply do not possess the knowledge, skills and abilities to make the systems work for them. You also need some money, some patience, and some luck in order to be a long term success. This article is not about comparing the Amway systems to gambling, it is about a person's ability to make the system work. The difference is that nobody promotes card counting as a good way to make a buck. The same holds true about Amway and their systems. It is not a good system to make money.

The Math?

 It is my observation that people who join Amway usually end up losing money in the end. They may get involved to make a few bucks or because they are mistakenly led to believe that they will become millionaires in Amway in 2-5 years. I know my sponsor convinced me that we would be millionaires in a few years. These folks who recruit new IBOs into Amway are often associated with a "system" such as Worldwide Dreambuilders (WWDB)or Network 21 (N21). These system promoters, often diamonds, may mislead the recruits by showing them pictures of mansions or other luxuries, implying that they attained these goods with their Amway business. In many cases, it is a deception, especially when we know for a fact that some diamond leaders who proclaimed that they only make cash purchases, had their homes foreclosed. Without the hype, I am sure there would be fewer sign ups. But what is the evidence?

It is simple. Amway reports that the average active IBO earns about $200 a month in gross income. This average includes diamonds and other higher end IBOs. I believe if you calculated the median, the average would be much lower.

But what makes IBOs operate at a loss is the system expenses. The system generally consists of voicemail, standing orders, cds, functions, books and other materials. An average business building IBO might spend an average of $250+ a month or so on these expenses. Amway defenders like to decry the amount, but there are couples who would likely spend more and IBOs who must travel by air to functions would spend more. Single IBOs who buy only the minimum might spend a bit less. Some IBOs with abusive uplines might spend much much more than $250 a month on tools. I believe my former sponsor spent easily an average of $1000 a month on average. (I am from Hawaii so the average cost of functions is greater due to long distance travel)

Thus if the average IBO earns $200 a month but the same average IBO spends $250 a month on tools, the average active IBO is losing $50+ a month, with lower level IBOs (i.e. 100 PV) would lose more.

Look at a group of 100 IBOs at 100 PV. (This is just a model). If a 100 business building IBOs average $250 a month on tools, they as a group would expend $25,000 a month on tools and functions. Their volume would be 10,000 PV, or about 30,000 BV. This would generate about $7500 in bonuses per month. Thus this group spent $25,000 to learn and be motivated while the group splits up $7500 a month in bonuses. The platinum would get the lion's share of the bonus but most of the rest of the group will suffer net losses. As the group grows, the bonus may grow, but so will their expenditures on tools. Keep in mind that a group of 100 IBOs spitting up $7500 would be an average of $75 each. It is the diamonds that drive up that average. The math bears it out.

The only way the group can make money as a whole is to avoid participation in the tools altogether and to actually sell products to non IBO customers. The evidence is right here with simple math. The systems do not work because the cost of the system is likely to consume all of the Amway generated bonuses and more. I gladly challenge anyone to explain in detail how this post is not reflective of the reality of being in Amway and a system such as WWDB or Network21.

The facts speak for themselves.

The Road To Riches?

 When I saw the Amway plan, it was presented sort of as a road to riches. Yes, the presenter was careful not to say it was "get rich quick", but 2-5 years is relatively quick when compared with working 40 hours a week for 40 years as the business plan was shown to us. And while some exceptional people do achieve diamond, there is a massive trail of IBOs who suffer losses, some of them staggering. In our own group, I know of at least one couple who lost their home following upline advice, and another couple to ended up filing for chapter 7 bankruptcy. I must state that the bad advice leading to bankruptcy and foreclosure most likely came from upline leaders. I also know of a gal who quit her job to attend a function, faithfully following upline advice from WWDB. It took her a while to recover from that bad advice. 

So, what is the experience of many CORE IBOs? I'm not talking about those who "do nothing", but IBOs who actually make an effort. Well, if they do their 100 PV, then they are spending about $300 a month on Amway stuff and dedicated IBOs will typically spend about $200 a month or more on average for tools. This is for a single person. A couple or family would be expected to do more, thus spend more. So, for these 100 PV IBOs, they will expend about $500 a month or more and get back maybe $10. Of course, if they were not in Amway, they would still have some expenses for household goods, but not anywhere near $500 a month. 

Over the course of a few years, these expenses add up and can become staggering losses. Hard core IBOs might expend even more. The only way a rank-and-file IBO can gain relief is to sell products (which is difficult given the prices and the Amway name reputation) or to sponsor downline who wil then suffer some of the losses for you. It would be my estimate that an IBO might break even at about the 4000 PV level. However, at 4000 PV, you might have significant expenses associated with running a group, such as showing distance plans for your group.  

Over the years, I would suspect that millions of IBOs have come and gone through the Amway opportunity and probably lost billions of dollars. But many of those who lose money think they are successful, because many upline will edify those who buy tools, regardless of IBO results. After a few months, if your group and PV are not growing consistently, it is highly unlikely that you are headed for success. 

IBOs and newbies, are you on the road to riches or financial disaster? Keep in mind that a net loss is not success, despite what you upline mentor may tell you.

Amway Or A Job?

 I recall many meetings and functions where the diamonds talked about how your job was making you "just over broke" or "jackass of the boss". They tried to put down jobs, as if working a job were some kind of cruel punishment for the masses. In reality, IBOs could not feed their families, pay their bills and they could not make the diamonds rich without their jobs. I remember seeing videos of people shooting their alarm clocks or a limousine pulling up to someone's place of employment and whisking off someone who recently went diamond or reaching some other pin level.

I suppose that for someone young, who may be in their 20's or 30's, the prospect of working another 30 years seems like a daunting task, thus a "shortcut" such as working 2-5 years sounds like a good alternative. It makes sense, until you actually start trying to build the business and find the name reputation and products difficult to sell. At some point, your investment into standing orders and functions starts to add up. You start to wonder if you made a mistake in trying to find a shortcut to financial freedom. You start to wonder if financial freedom even exists in the Ama-world. Why are the diamonds still working? Why don't any of them "walk away" and collect residual income for life while walking on the beaches of the world?

Luckily, you did not quit your job. While your current job may not equip you with financial freedom, you are likely able to pay your bills and put food on your dinner table. That is more than most people can say about the income they receive from Amway. I used to wonder how much money these diamonds actually make. While they may earn a nice income (if they are actually qualified), a diamond lifestyle can render them even more broke and in debt than the people they recruit into Amway. I believe many diamonds are living month to month, worrying about their finances because they portray a lifestyle that cannot be sustained on the kinds of incomes that Amway reports (i.e. $147,000 average diamond income). A recent triple diamond in bankrupt proceedings revealed that while they earn a nice income, they may not be able to sustain an excessive lifestyle, and certainly not without making a significant income from selling functions and other tools to downline.

Rather than getting excited about seeing a Mercedes Benz, ask your diamond how much they earn from Amway. Ask them why there aren't any diamonds taking advantage of residual income for life, thus walking away from the Amway business? While working a job and saving money may not sound that attractive, it is still a much better alternative than working a job while channeling your income into standing orders, voicemail and functions that do nothing except make your bank account lighter. Financial security and long term sustainability takes hard work and discipline. Many who promote Amway trick prospects into thinking that Amway is a shortcut to get rich. It isn't, save for the owners of Amway and a few old time Diamonds who control the systems. The facts are there, you just need top recognize them.